Monday, February 16, 2009

Aud-Yen



This is the Aud/Yen hourly chart. At the bottom is the ATR indicator. ATR - Average True Range, measures the average daily range of movement. If its quite high means the underlying is moving about quite a bit. As you can see, ATR was about 0.4-0.5 for most of the last few days. But in the past 40 hours or so, it has collapsed. As you can see from the chart that the movement in the pair was confined to between 59.4 or so & 60. Thats quite a range compression for one of the most volatile pair in the markets.

While its true that market volatility has been consistently going down over the past few days, with the strong clear trends of Oct-Jan giving way to muddled moves, this kind of compression in volatility doesnt last for long. There are periods of high volatility followed by a lull when no one is sure of the direction of the next move. But we should see a strong directional move developing soon. And the best thing would be to wait for a proper break from this range & take a trade in that direction with a stop below/above the other side of the range.

Breakout on either side should give a move of 200-300 pips, making for very good gains.